SurveyUSA (4/4-6, likely Democratic primary voters):
Steve Novick (D): 23%
Candy Neville (D): 12%
Jeff Merkley (D): 11%
David Loera (D): 6%
Roger Obrist (D): 5%
Pavel Goberman (D): 3%
Undecided: 40%
(MoE: ±4.1%)
With six weeks to go until Oregon’s primary, state House Speaker Jeff Merkley has some work to do in order to claim a victory here. Part of Merkley’s deficit can be chalked up to the fact that his campaign had not yet begun airing TV ads when this poll was conducted, while Novick has already aired several quirky, attention-grabbing spots. Merkley launched his air campaign today, so that should help him raise his name recognition. The question is — with Obama and Clinton buying up chunks of airtime in advance of the May 20th primary, is Merkley at risk of getting swamped out by the presidential spotlight? He has an awful lot of primary voters to introduce himself to in the coming weeks.
(H/T: Blue Oregon)
Adding all those numbers together, it only accounts for 60% of Democratic Primary voters. Where are the other 40%? Are they ALL undecided?
Merkley ought to close well, as he’s got the money and most of the establishment support, but that he’s in third behind a Kucinich/Sheehan supporter has got to be concerning for him. From what I can tell he’s well known amongst high-info voters, but if he’s polling this low then he may struggle elsewhere amongst people who don’t know he’s the House Speaker.
Novick definitely has the advantage now. If he can keep winning the debates, keep his ads entertaining and not make any major slip ups, my money’s on him to win it by about 45% to 40%. And yes, I probably have just doomed his candidacy by saying that.
. . . what to make of Novick's candidacy. On the one hand, he seems to have the Wellstonian quality of bursting onto the scene as a dynamic outsider with real ideas, taking the establishment by surprise and potentially winning the support of the public. On the other hand . . . well, he can seem a bit outlandish, such as his tirade against U2's Bono at this past weekend's debate. That bit reminded me of a candidate who was a far, far cry from Wellstonian greatness– Geoffrey Fieger! (Yes, I know, to be fair, we Dems didn't choose Fieger, Dr. Kevorkian's lawyer, on our own; it was because of that damn open primary in Michigan that the GOP saddled us with that nut. But, still, it certainly didn't help us down-ballot when Fieger let loose with bizarre comments!)
I know that many of our Oregonian denizens here are passionately in favor of one candidate or the other; I am curious as to what the average joe on the street thinks of each at this point. While Novick may very well be ahead, this particular poll seems a little suspect . . .
I usually like SUSA’s work but this poll just doesn’t feel right.
Consider this:
Do you think Novick would be polling 7 points better with people over 65 than with voters under 34? This poll says he is.
Do you think David Lorea a guy who asked me twice to be his campaign manager (truly the sign of a legitimate candidate) is really getting 6% of the vote despite having no money no press? This poll says he is.
At least Lorea and Neville are were mentioned in the article talking about how they were barred from the city club debate but has anyone read anything about Obrist? Do you think that Roger Obrist is really getting five percent of the vote? This poll says he is.
Do you think that more than one out of every four voters is voting for Obrist, Goberman, Lorea, or Candy Neville? This poll says thats happening.
I have done a lot of phone banking in this race and probably talked to several hundred voters and not once have I heard anyone mention anyone besides Merkley or Novick though this poll suggests 1 in 4 voters will vote for someone besides those two.
The strangest one is this: According to the poll, 70% of voters said they had their minds made up. Of the 70% who have made up their mind, 37% said they were undecided. Does this make any sense at all?
Im not saying that it doesn’t mean Merkley has a hill to climb but Novick went on TV early and Merkley hasn’t yet and will have more money to spend on ads. Plus Merkley has a better on the ground opperation with his union support and more field organizers than Novick so if this poll is an outlier and in fact the candidates are neck and neck like the conventional wisdom before the poll, Merkley should be worried but is hardly done considering the time he has to leverage his advantages.
A number of questions have been raised about this poll. But that’s all a bit of a side issue as far as the Merkley campaign.
Jeff Merkley has an overwhelming dominance in endorsements and has only today begun to run his very first TV ads.
Steve Novick has had a couple different TV ad buys dating back to late January (I believe). It should be surprising that the only candidate who has run ads would have a better name recognition. But he shot a lot of his money on those efforts.
So here we are in the closing weeks of the campaign. Jeff Merkley has far more money to buy ads with and he has totally dominated the endorsement race.
Seems to me like a very smartly managed campaign. Which, frankly, is what it’s going to take to send Senator Gordon Smith back to his frozen vegetable plant in Pendleton.
As a Merkley supporter, I would have much preferred different numbers here, but there is still plenty of reason to be optimistic. As noted in the post, Merkley’s first TV ads start airing today. The ad buy is pretty large, so a lot more people will know more about Jeff Merkley shortly.
Merkley has also been performing well in debates. His performance at the Portland City Club really helped his cause, and his momentum is building as we head towards May 20.
40% of those polled were undecided, and Merkley will be able to convince plenty of those that he’s the right person to knock Gordon Smith out of the Senate.
where one was leading the other 23-16 with the rest undecided. it tells me that hardly anyone has heard of either candidate or is paying attention. not only are the remaining 40% undecided completely in flux, but most of the supporters of the 4 other than merkley and novick (totalling more than 25% of those polled) will not stick with them once they focus on the race.
effective tv, radio and direct mail should define the race in the next few weeks.
That’s good. It means people like both Merkley and Novick, so either will have strong support no matter who wins.